Time Bomb Ticking
According to the Ministry of Environment, Government of India http://envfor.nic.in/cc/diduknow.htm:
ïƒ˜ A 1-metre rise in sea level would displace about 7 million people in India
ïƒ˜ Fossil fuel burning has contributed to most of the greenhouse gas emissions in the past 20 years.
ïƒ˜ The decade of the 1990s was the warmest, and 1998 was the warmest year on record, since 1861
ïƒ˜ The population of ice-dependent penguin species in the Western Antarctic Peninsula has decreased by 20% over the last 25 years
ïƒ˜ Projections for the 21st century indicate that the earth's average temperature will rise by anything between 1.4 and 5.8ºC
According to Climate Change: India’s Perceptions, Positions, Policies and Possibilities by Parikh, Jyoti K. and Parikh, Kirit (2002), OECD,
• Climate change would result in large-scale emigration from coastal zones due to submergence of coastlines after sea levels have risen. This will create large numbers of environmental refugees especially from low-lying delta regions in poor countries. Furthermore, intrusion of sea-water in the ground water and changes in temperature can reduce agricultural and fishing incomes.
• India would face yield losses in rice and wheat along with fall in the rate of growth of gross domestic product owing to climate change.
• Increased occurrence of extreme events (such as cyclones) due to climate change will mostly affect the poor. One must remember here the cyclone of 1996 that hit Andhra Pradesh.
• The power sector is responsible for the highest direct emissions of CO2 in India (42%), followed by iron and steel, road, railways and air transport, and coal. the power sector is permitted to use natural gas. Coal-based fertiliser plants no longer function and coal use in railways is almost phased out.
• When carbon is traded, what developing countries like India gain would depend on whether the market is competitive, whether futures markets exist, or whether the carbon is bilaterally traded in a project-by-project basis, as is envisaged under CDM.
According to the Climate change, sustainable development and India: Global and national concerns by Jayant Sathaye , PR Shukla and NH Ravindranath, Current Science, Vol. 90, No. 3, 10 February 2006 http://www.iisc.ernet.in/currsci/feb102006/314.pdf
The latest high-resolution climate change scenarios and projections for India, based on Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) system, known as PRECIS developed by Hadley Center and applied for India using IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 shows the following:
a. An annual mean surface temperature rise by the end of century, ranging from 3 to 5C under A2 scenario and 2.5 to 4C under B2 scenario, with warming more pronounced in the northern parts of India;
b. A 20% rise in all India summer monsoon rainfall and further rise in rainfall is projected over all states except Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, which show a slight decrease.
c. Extremes in maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase and similarly extreme precipitation also shows substantial increases, particularly over the west coast of India and west central India.