Time Bomb Ticking

The key findings of India's Third Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (released in February 2021), prepared by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, are as follows (please click here to access):

• India's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including LULUCF i.e. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) has almost doubled from 1,229 MtCO2e (million tonnes of Carbon dioxide equivalent) in 1994 to 2,531 MtCO2e in 2016. The energy sector added almost three-fourth of total emissions (without LULUCF) in 2016, followed by 14.4 percent from agriculture, around 8 percent from Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) and 2.6 percent from waste.

• In 2016, electricity production was the single largest source under the energy sector (thanks to its dependence on coal) that was responsible for about 40 percent of the total GHG emissions. In 2016, road transport was responsible for about 9 percent of total GHG emissions by the country. Residential buildings emitted almost 4 percent of total GHG emissions in 2016.

• The total emissions of the energy sector were 21,29,428 Gg CO2e (Gigagram of Carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2016, increasing by 11.50 percent from 2014. This sector constituted 93 percent of total national CO2 emissions in 2016. This was primarily from fossil fuel combustion, comprising energy industries and construction, manufacturing industries, transport and other sectors.

• The transport sector is largely oil-dependent and accounted for 9.67 percent of the country’s GHG emissions (without LULUCF).

• The industrial processes and product use (IPPU) category emitted 2,26,407 Gg of CO2e in the year 2016 and accounted for 8 percent of the total GHG emissions. Within IPPU, cement production is the largest emission source, accounting for about 47 percent of total IPPU sector emissions.

• The agriculture sector in the year 2016, emitted 4,07,821 Gg of CO2e, which amounted to around 14 percent of the emissions of India for that year, registering a decrease of 2.25 percent since 2014.

• The LULUCF sector was a net sink of 3,07,820 Gg CO2e during 2016, registering an increase in the sink activity of the sector. Cropland dominates the CO2 emissions/removal estimates for India for the year 2016. Forest land, Cropland and Settlement categories were net sinks while Grassland was a net source of CO2. About 15 percent of India’s CO2 emissions were offset by the LULUCF sector.

• The waste sector emitted 75,232 Gg CO2e to total GHG emissions in 2016. The waste sector was dominated by emissions from wastewater handling which account for more than 79 percent of the sectoral emissions and remaining 21 percent emissions from solid waste disposal.

• On the financial needs of India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs), estimates have already indicated that India would need at least USD 206 billion (at 2014-15 prices) between 2015 and 2030 for implementing adaptation actions in key areas. Mitigation requirements for even moderate low-carbon development have been projected to be in the range of USD 834 billion until 2030 at 2011 prices. Green Climate Fund finance to India is inadequate and is likely to fall drastically short of meeting India’s finance requirements.

• India's annual average temperature is increasing at a statistically significant rate of 0.61 degree Celsius (C) per 100 years over the period 1901-2019. There is a significant increasing trend in the maximum temperature of 1 degree C per 100 years and a relatively lower increase, also significant, in minimum temperatures of 0.22 degree C per 100 years.

• The year 2019 was the seventh warmest year on record since 1901 with annual mean surface air temperature +0.36 degree C above the 1981-2010 period average.

• Between 1989 and 2018 there have been significant changes in the frequency of dry days, rainy days (rainfall of 2.5 mm or more but less than 6.5 cm), and heavy rainfall (rainfall of 6.5 cm or more).

• A significant decreasing trend (at 99 percent level of confidence) of the frequency of intense cyclonic disturbances during monsoon season is noticed during the last 59 years from 1961 to 2019 over the Indian region.

• Based on the observed cyclonic activities during 1891-2019, on an average 5 cyclones developed over the north Indian Ocean region in a year, with an average of 4 cyclone activities developing over the Bay of Bengal and 1 cyclone activity developing over the Arabian Sea.

• During 2019, eight cyclonic storms formed over the north Indian Ocean. Out of these eight systems, one system each formed during the winter and pre-monsoon season, over the Bay of Bengal.

• The frequency and duration of heat waves over north-west India and the east coast of India have increased. The duration of heat waves over central and north-west India has increased by about five days over the past 50 years.

• Monitoring of winter precipitation and temperature in the Western Himalaya suggests a significant increase in total precipitation but a decrease in snowfall from 1991 to 2015.

• Most of the Himalayan glaciers are retreating and the rates of retreat have probably accelerated in the past few decades, but the observed tendencies are not regionally uniform. The mean rate of retreat is 14.2±12.9 ma-1 (Water equivalent per unit area per year), but with high levels of uncertainty in the estimates.

• Currently, sea levels along the Indian coast are rising. The long term average of sea level rise is about 1.7 mm/year. However, these are changing at different rates along the Indian coast.

• In contrast to the huge emissions from forest fires globally, the emissions from forest fires in India contribute a mere 1.0-1.5 percent of all global emissions from wildfires, even though India accounted for 2 percent of the total global forest area in 2015, according to the Global Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

• India’s per capita energy consumption grew from 19,669 MJ (megajoules) in 2011-12 to 24,453 MJ in 2018-19(P). In 2018-19(P), primary energy supply added up to 906.09 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe).

• As per present estimates, India has a renewable energy potential of about 1,097,465 MW (Megawatt) for commercially exploitable sources viz. wind – 3,02,251 MW (at 100 m mast height), small hydro - 21,134 MW; bio-energy - 22,536 MW, solar power – 7,48,990 MW and industrial waste - 2,554 MW.

• In the year 2018-19(P), India’s per capita energy consumption was 24,453 MJ which is just one-third of the world average. Per capita energy consumption of India grew by 24.32 percent from 2011-12 to 2018-19.