China has pulled ahead of India on far more than the economy -Niranjan Rajadhyaksha
In economic terms, it’s around a dozen years ahead of us, but the gap is much larger when social indicators are considered
The spectacular rise of China over the past few decades has no parallel in human history. The People’s Republic of China was established 70 years ago this month under conditions of economic misery. It is today the main geopolitical challenger to the US. As a result of its profound economic transformation, China has taken a lead over India in the past two decades. How large is this lead?
This is a question worth asking as the Chinese economy inevitably begins to move out of the fast lane now that China is a middle-income country. The loss of momentum will perhaps be deeper than expected if the strategic squeeze being applied by the US has its desired effect. A forthcoming working paper by economists M. Zhu, L. Zhang and D. Peng estimates that the rate of expansion of the Chinese economy will be down to 4% by 2030. A few private sector economists believe that China could end up growing at half that rate.
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