Excess rain washes out IMD's methods -Jacob Koshy

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published Published on Oct 3, 2019   modified Modified on Oct 3, 2019
-The Hindu

New dynamical model failed to forecast August-September deluge.

While India this year may have recorded its highest monsoon rain in 25 years, an analysis suggests that new monsoon models, called the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast Model (CFS), deployed by the IMD over the last decade don’t do better than the older ones in long-range forecasting.

This year, India ended up with 10% more monsoon rain (or 110% of the long period average LPA of 887 mm) than usual. However, none of the agency’s models tuned to capture long term forecast trends warned of this. The IMD’s workhorse statistical models said in its last update on August 1 that All India Monsoon Rainfall (June-September) would be 96% of the LPA. The CFS model in April said the monsoon would be 94% of the normal and updated to 99% in August.

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The Hindu, 2 October, 2019, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/monsoon-excess-eludes-imds-models/article29577415.ece?homepage=true


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