Bumper foodgrain output expected in 2016-17 but production during rabi may be lower vis-a-vis 2013-14

Bumper foodgrain output expected in 2016-17 but production during rabi may be lower vis-a-vis 2013-14


After facing intense criticisms from various sections of the society following its policy of demonetisation during November-December, 2016, the NDA government has finally something solid to cheer about.

Riding on the back of a normal monsoon, gross foodgrain production is likely to reach a record level of about 272.0 million tonnes in the crop year 2016-17.

As per the second advance estimates of foodgrain production, which has been released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare on 15 February, 2017, the total foodgrain production in the crop year 2016-17 is not only expected to be higher than that in 2014-15 and 2015-16, it is also anticipated to surpass the previous record level of nearly 265.0 million tonnes of foodgrain output that was achieved in 2013-14.

Chart 1 Total Foodgrain Production
Source: Second advance estimates of foodgrain production in 2016-17, released on 15 February, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, please click here to access

Note: The figures for 2016-17 is based on second advance estimates, which has been released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare on 15 February, 2017.

The total foodgrain production in each year has been calculated by adding together the total output of rice, wheat, coarse cerealsand pulses.
 

If one were to believe the experts, then the expected total foodgrain production in 2016-17 cannot be compared with that of the previous two years i.e. 2014-15 and 2015-16 during which drought like condition was faced by most Indian states as a result of deficit monsoon rainfall.

Since 2016-17 has been a normal year in terms of monsoon rainfall, so the expected total foodgrain production in this year should ideally be compared with that of a previous normal year -- in this case 2013-14.

By comparing so, one finds that the gross foodgrain output actually increased by almost 2.6 percent between 2013-14 and 2016-17 i.e. from roughly 265.0 million tonnes to 272.0 million tonnes. Most media outlets have so far reported about this increase in foodgrain production in a positive manner.

Between 2013-14 and 2016-17, the total foodgrain production during kharif is likely to increase from 128.7 million tonnes to 137.5 million tonnes i.e. by almost 6.8 percent. On account of a normal monsoon, the kharif foodgrain production in 2016-17 has been higher than that in 2013-14 (which was also a normal year in terms of monsoon rainfall).  

However, it could be observed from Chart-1 that foodgrain production during rabi is likely to fall from 136.3 million tonnes in 2013-14 to 134.5 million tonnes in 2016-17 i.e. by nearly 1.3 percent. The expected decline in gross foodgrain production between 2013-14 and 2016-17, despite a good monsoon season, may be attributed to the demonetisation policy, which was implemented between 8 November, 2016 and 30 December, 2016.

It needs to be mentioned that due to the banning of high value currency notes of Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1,000/- denomination, farmers and cultivators faced difficulty in selling their produce following the kharif harvest. They also struggled to purchase inputs required for the rabi sowing during November-December, 2016. In other words, the shortage of currency notes adversely affected the sowing of rabi crops and, hence, rabi foodgrain production.

The reader should note that for the country as a whole, rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June-September) as a percentage of long period average (LPA) was 92 percent in 2012, 106 percent in 2013, 88 percent in 2014, 86 percent in 2015 and 97 percent in 2016, as per various reports from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Estimated production of various crops in 2016-17  

From the Table-1 it could be noticed that in case of rice, coarse cereals and oilseeds, rabi production in 2016-17 has been lesser than that in 2013-14. 
 
Table 1: Production of various crops (in million tonnes)
Table 1 Production of various crops 
 
Source: Second advance estimates of foodgrain production in 2016-17, released on 15 February 2017, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, please click here to access

Note: The figures for 2016-17 is based on second advance estimates, which has been released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare on 15 February, 2017.

The total foodgrain production in each year has been calculated by adding together the total output of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses.
 
Total rice production is expected to be not only higher in 2016-17 vis-à-vis 2015-16, it is also likely to be higher than that in 2013-14.
 
Wheat production in the crop year 2016-17 is estimated to be marginally higher than that in 2013-14 (i.e. an increase by only 0.7 percent).  

Total pulses production is likely to reach 22.1 million tonnes in 2016-17 from 19.2 million tonnes in 2013-14 i.e. a rise by 15.1 percent. However, pulses production during rabi in 2016-17 is almost the same as that in 2013-14 

Total oilseeds production in 2016-17 is likely to rise by 2.8 percent vis-à-vis 2013-14 but as compared to 2015-16 it is expected to increase by 32.8 percent.  

Total coarse cereals production is likely to reach 44.3 million tonnes in 2016-17 from 43.3 million tonnes in 2013-14 i.e. by 2.3 percent.


References

Second advance estimates of foodgrain production in 2016-17, released on 15 February 2017, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, please click here to access 

Acreage under rabi crops declined in 2016-17 as compared to 2013-14, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, 25 January, 2017, please click here to access 

Cropping seasons of India- Kharif & Rabi, Arthapedia, please click here to access 

Good news! Your food bill in 2016-17 set to fall; here's why, The Financial Express, 16 February, 2017, please click here to access 

Powered by good monsoon, India set for best-ever foodgrain output -Vishwa Mohan & Dipak K Dash, The Times of India, 16 February, 2017, please click here to access 

Record foodgrain, oilseed output likely this year, The Indian Express, 16 February, 2017, please click here to access
 
At 272 MT, record grain output likely, The Tribune, 15 February, 2017, please click here to access 

Record wheat, foodgrain output likely in 2016-17 -Sanjeeb Mukherjee, Business Standard, 15 February, 2017, please click here to access 

Foodgrain production estimated at a record 272 million tonnes in 2016-17: govt -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 15 February, 2017, please click here to access 

Horticulture output to exceed foodgrain yield -Sanjeeb Mukherjee, Business Standard, 10 February, 2017, please click here to access
 
 
Image: Himanshu Joshi 



Related Articles

 

Write Comments

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

Video Archives

Archives

share on Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Feedback
Read Later