Growth in Agri GVA deflator saw a rising trend between 2005-06 & 2009-10, despite using different sources of back-series data

Growth in Agri GVA deflator saw a rising trend between 2005-06 & 2009-10, despite using different sources of back-series data


The year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate in Agri Gross Value Added (GVA) deflator (an alternative measure of inflation) shows a rising trend between 2005-06 and 2009-10. In other words, price rise pertaining to the agrarian sector accelerated during the period under discussion.

This particular trend has been observed irrespective of whether one uses the GVA/GDP back-series data (Base 2011-12=100) that was computed by the National Institution for Transforming India Aayog (NITI Aayog) and the Central Statistics Office (CSO) jointly or the data that was produced by the Committee on Real Sector Statistics (constituted by the National Statistical Commission-NSC). Please check chart-1 and chart-2, apart from table-1 and table-2.   

Using both the sources of back-series data (Base 2011-12=100), it has also been found that the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator exceeded the y-o-y growth rates of Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator (except for 2011-12 in case of the latter) between 2005-06 and 2011-12. Kindly see chart-1 and chart-2 along with table-1 and table-2 for details.

A previous news alert by the Inclusive Media for Change, on using data provided by the NITI Aayog and CSO (released on 28th November 2018), had found that the y-o-y growth rates of Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator outperformed the y-o-y growth rate of Agri GVA deflator in the financial years 2017-18 and 2018-19. Please check chart-3. It means that the prices grew faster pertaining to the non-agrarian sectors vis-à-vis the agrarian sector during those 2 years.  

Media reports and analyses suggest that the recent problems related to Indian agriculture, among other things, include farmers not getting remunerative prices against the crops, which they have been growing. On top of that, farmers have faced deflation in prices for various crops. Farmers' agitations, demanding for remunerative crop prices, among other things, have intensified during the recent years.

It should be noted by the readers that the GVA deflator (also known as implicit price deflator for GVA) is considered as one of the most comprehensive measures of inflation, which is implicitly computed from the National Accounts Statistics as a ratio of GVA at current prices to constant prices.

The GVA deflator covers the entire range of economic activities including services. In India, it is available on a quarterly as well as annual basis. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the GVA deflator is not based on a fixed basket of goods and services; rather the basket for the GVA deflator is allowed to change from year to year as per people's consumption and investment patterns.

Kindly note that GVA is the difference between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and net indirect taxes. In order to know more about the concept of GVA, please click here.

Growth in Agri GVA deflator as per the Committee on Real Sector Statistics data


Although the findings of the report by the Committee on Real Sector Statistics (chaired by Prof. Sudipto Mundle--Emeritus Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi) were not accepted outrightly by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, it is interesting to see how prices grew in the agrarian sector vis-à-vis the non-agrarian sectors on the basis of GVA/GDP data (new 2011-12 series) given in that report.

Chart 1 Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator in percent
Note: Sectoral GVA deflator is calculated using the formula: GVA Price Deflator = (Nominal GVA ÷ real GVA, which is in constant prices) x 100  

Source: Report of Committee on Real Sector Statistics constituted by the National Statistical Commission, released on 15th July, 2018, please click here to access  
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As could be observed from chart-1, the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator was more than the y-o-y growth rates of Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator (except for 2011-12 in case of the latter) between 2005-06 and 2013-14. During the same time span, the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator also surpassed the y-o-y growth rates of overall GVA and GDP deflators except for the FY 2011-12. Please note that chart-1 is derived from table-1.

Table 1: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator (in %)

Table 1 Year on Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator in percent
Note: Sectoral GVA deflator is calculated using the formula: GVA Price Deflator = (Nominal GVA ÷ real GVA, which is in constant prices) x 100  

Source:
Report of Committee on Real Sector Statistics constituted by the National Statistical Commission, released on 15th July, 2018, please click here to access 
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Table-1 shows that although the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator rose steadily between 2005-06 and 2009-10 from 7.28 percent to 13.95 percent, it fluctuated during the 2010-11 to 2013-14 period.

It needs to be mentioned here that the classification of various sub-sectors under Agriculture, Industry and Services in the present news alert has been done as per a report entitled Q3 GDP Data: A Whole Slew of Revisions by the State Bank of India, which was published on 28th February, 2019.

Growth in Agri GVA deflator between 2005-06 and 2011-12 as per the NITI Aayog & CSO data

After the criticism of the report from the Committee on Real Sector Statistics by the NDA government, the NITI Aayog and CSO came out with the back-series estimates (of GVA/GDP) for the years 2004-05 to 2011-12 with the new base 2011-12.

Chart 2 Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator in percent
Note: Sectoral GVA deflator is calculated using the formula: GVA Price Deflator = (Nominal GVA ÷ real GVA, which is in constant prices) x 100  

Source: Press Note on National Accounts Statistics Back series 2004-05 to 2011-12 (Base 2011-12), released on 28th November 2018, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access

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On the basis of data provided by the NITI Aayog and CSO it could be said that the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator outmatched the y-o-y growth rates of Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator (except for 2011-12 in case of the latter) between 2005-06 and 2011-12. The y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator was higher than the y-o-y growth rates of overall GVA deflator (except for 2006-07 and 2011-12) and GDP deflator (except for 2011-12). Kindly note that chart-2 is derived from table-2.

Table 2: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator (in %)

Table 2 Year on Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator in percent

Note: Sectoral GVA deflator is calculated using the formula: GVA Price Deflator = (Nominal GVA ÷ real GVA, which is in constant prices) x 100  

Source: Press Note on National Accounts Statistics Back series 2004-05 to 2011-12 (Base 2011-12), released on 28th November 2018, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access

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Table-2 indicates that although the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator increased steadily between 2005-06 and 2009-10 from 7.57 percent to 16.16 percent, it went down to reach 12.09 percent in 2010-11 and further to 8.60 percent in 2011-12.

Growth in Agri GVA deflator between 2012-13 and 2018-19 as per the NITI Aayog & CSO data

Based on the data provided by NITI Aayog and CSO, the news alert by Inclusive Media for Change dated 13th March, 2019 had stated that the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator fell from 9.89 percent to 0.45 percent between 2012-13 to 2018-19. Contrary to that, an increase in the y-o-y growth rates of Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator (alongside overall GVA and GDP deflators) is noted following the FY 2015-16. The Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator (apart from overall GVA and GDP deflators) saw falling y-o-y growth rates during the 2012-13 to 2015-16 period. Please consult chart-3 for details.

Chart 3 Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator in percent
Source: Press Note on National Accounts Statistics Back series 2004-05 to 2011-12 (Base 2011-12), released on 28th November 2018, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access
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That news alert by Inclusive Media for Change had also observed that although the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator surpassed y-o-y growth rate in overall GVA deflator during the period from 2012-13 to 2016-17, the latter exceeded the former in 2017-18 and 2018-19.

Economic growth experienced in the 2005-06 to 2011-12 period as per different data sources

On comparing table-3 against table-4, it could be said that the Report of Committee on Real Sector Statistics (constituted by the NSC) estimated higher y-o-y growth rates of real GVA and real GDP at market price (viz. at 2011-12 prices) between 2005-06 and 2011-12 as compared to what was calculated by the NITI Aayog and CSO jointly.

For example, between 2010-11 and 2011-12 overall real GVA (viz. at 2011-12 prices) grew by 7.05 percent if the data provided by Report of Committee on Real Sector Statistics is considered. Please check table-3. However, the y-o-y growth rate in overall real GVA (viz. at constant prices) was 5.22 percent in 2011-12 if the data given by NITI Aayog and CSO is taken into account. Kindly see table-4.

Table 3: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices, in percent

Table 3 Year on Year Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices in percent
Source: Report of Committee on Real Sector Statistics constituted by the National Statistical Commission, released on 15th July, 2018, please click here to access 
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The Report of Committee on Real Sector Statistics estimated higher y-o-y growth rates of real Agri GVA (viz. at 2011-12 prices) between 2005-06 and 2009-10 as compared to what was computed by the NITI Aayog and CSO jointly. Kindly compare table-3 against table-4.
 
Regardless of the source of data used, it could be observed from both table-3 and table-4 that the y-o-y growth rate of real Agri GVA fell to lower levels (as compared to y-o-y growth rates of real Agri GVA in other years) in 2008-09 and 2009-10. This may have happened because of drought and water scarcity taking place in various parts of the country during 2009.

Table 4: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices, in percent

Table 4 Year on Year Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices in percent
Source: Press Note on National Accounts Statistics Back series 2004-05 to 2011-12 (Base 2011-12), released on 28th November 2018, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access
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Official data shows that the total foodgrain production went up from 217.28 million tonness in 2006-07 to 230.78 million tonnes in 2007-08, which is a growth by 6.21 percent. However, total foodgrain production increased by only 1.60 percent between the crop years 2007-08 and 2008-09 to reach 234.47 million tonnes. In 2009-10 foodgrain production dipped by almost -6.98 percent as compared to the previous crop year to reach 218.11 million tonnes. 

References

Press Note on National Accounts Statistics Back series 2004-05 to 2011-12 (Base 2011-12), released on 28th November 2018, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access
 
Report of Committee on Real Sector Statistics constituted by the National Statistical Commission, released on 15th July, 2018, please click here to access  

Q3 GDP Data: A Whole Slew of Revisions, Economic Research Department (ERD), State Bank of India Corporate Centre, 28 February, 2019, Issue No. 93, please click here to access   

Second Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2018-19, released on 28th February, 2019, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, please click here to access 
 
Press note: Back Series of National Accounts Statistics - A Clarification dated 19 August, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, please click here to access 
 
Growth in Agri GVA Deflator shows a declining trend in comparison to growth in other sectoral GVA deflators, News alert by Inclusive Media for Change dated 13 March 2019 please click here to access 

Deflation in WPI of 8 kharif crops observed during 2016-17 to 2018-19, while their MSPs grew at a positive rate, News alert by Inclusive Media for Change dated 31 December, 2018, please click here to access  

Three years ago, key statistics panel revised UPA growth up, Niti Aayog rejected it -P Vaidyanathan Iyer, The Indian Express, 7 December, 2018, please click here to access  

Is the government weaponising economic data?, The Telegraph, 5 December, 2018, please click here to access 

Is the new GDP series a travesty of statistics? -Himanshu, Livemint.com, 4 December, 2018, please click here to access 

Under fire, NITI Aayog says was told to look at GDP back series data -Sunny Verma, The Indian Express, 3 December, 2018, please click here to access 

As institutions change, so does data credibility, Livemint.com, 30 November, 2018, please click here to access 

Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics at London School of Economics, interviewed by Tathagata Bhattacharya, National Herald, 17 September, 2018, please click here to access  

GDP back series data: National Statistical Commission seeks public comment on panel report, Firstpost.com, 23 August, 2018, please click here to access 

NR Bhanumurthy, professor of economics at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and author of the series presented in a report to the National Statistical Commission, interviewed by Abhishek Waghmare, Business Standard, 21 August, 2018, please click here to access 

Modi govt: Don't quote report that showed higher GDP growth under UPA than NDA -Mahua Venkatesh, ThePrint.in, 21 August, 2018, please click here to access 

Back series GDP data not official: Ministry of Statistics -TCA Sharad Raghavan, The Hindu, 19 August, 2018, please click here to access 

MoSPI says back series GDP figures 'not official', formal data later, Business Standard, 19 August, 2018, please click here to access 

Congress uses revised GDP data to defend UPA's economic record -Anuja, Livemint.com, 19 August, 2018, please click here to access 

Double-digit delight for Manmohan era, The Telegraph, 18 August, 2018, please click here to access  

GDP grew in double digits twice in UPA era -Asit Ranjan Mishra, Livemint.com, 17 August, 2018, please click here to access  

About 100 districts have suffered drought conditions for 15 years -Jitendra, Down to Earth, 16 September, 2015, please click here to access 
 
Why deflator is best indicator of price rise -Harish Damodaran, The Indian Express, 4 September, 2015, please click here to access
 
 
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak
  



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