Growth in Agri GVA deflator shows a declining trend in comparison to growth in other sectoral GVA deflators

Growth in Agri GVA deflator shows a declining trend in comparison to growth in other sectoral GVA deflators

Recent studies and media reports have confirmed that Indian farmers are facing non-remunerative and sometimes falling prices. A past news alert by the Inclusive Media for Change team indicated deflation in wholesale prices of 8 kharif crops (viz. maize, arhar, moong, urad, groundnut, soybean, sunflower seed and Niger seed) on average between 2016-17 and 2018-19. Based on data analysis, that news alert also demonstrated how the rural areas have witnessed a higher rate of inflation in services (such as health and education) vis-à-vis the rate of inflation in Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI).

A similar picture emerges if we check the performance of Agri Gross Value Added (GVA) deflator vis-à-vis other sectoral GVA deflators. After calculating the various sectoral GVA deflators, it could be observed that the year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate in Agri GVA deflator (an alternative measure of inflation) has fallen over the years during the period from 2012-13 to 2018-19. As opposed to that, a rise in the y-o-y growth rates of Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator (alongside overall GVA and GDP deflators) is observed following the financial year 2015-16. It may be added here that the Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator (apart from overall GVA and GDP deflators) saw falling y-o-y growth rates during the period from 2012-13 to 2015-16. Please check chart-1.

Chart 1 Year on Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator in percent 
Note: Sectoral GVA deflator is calculated using the formula: GVA Price Deflator = (Nominal GVA ÷ real GVA, which is in constant prices) x 100

Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for years 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 are Actuals; Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for 2015-16 are Third Revised Estimates; Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for 2016-17 are Second Revised Estimates; Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for 2017-18 are First Revised Estimates; and Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for 2018-19 are Second Advance Estimates
   
Source: Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for years 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 sourced from Press Note on Second Advance Estimates of National Income 2018-19 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third Quarter Q3 of 2018-19, released on 28th February, 2019, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access

Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for 2015-16 sourced from Press Note on First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for 2017-18, released on 31st January 2019, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access

Data of Sectoral GVAs, overall GVA and GDP for years 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 sourced from Press Note on National Accounts Statistics Back series 2004-05 to 2011-12 (Base 2011-12), released on 28th November 2018, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access
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Chart-1 is derived from table-1. Table-1 shows that the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator fell from 9.89 percent in 2012-13 to 0.45 percent in 2018-19. Although the y-o-y growth rate in Industrial GVA deflator fell from 7.43 percent in 2012-13 to -0.32 percent in 2015-16, the same bounced back to 0.87 percent in 2016-17 and reached 5.52 percent in 2018-19. The y-o-y growth rate in Services GVA deflator increased from 0.85 percent in 2015-16 to 4.99 percent in 2018-19. Although the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA deflator surpassed y-o-y growth rate in overall GVA deflator during the period from 2012-13 to 2016-17, the latter exceeded the former in 2017-18 and 2018-19. It may be added here that farmers' agitations, demanding for remunerative crop prices, among other things, have intensified during the recent years.

Table 1: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator, in percent (calculated by Inclusive Media for Change)  

Table 1 Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA Deflator in percent Calculated
Note: Same as in chart-1

Source: Same as in chart-1
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Readers may note that the GVA deflator (also known as implicit price deflator for GVA) is considered as one of the most comprehensive measures of inflation, which is implicitly computed from the National Accounts Statistics as a ratio of GVA at current prices to constant prices.

The GVA deflator covers the entire range of economic activities including services. In our country, it is available on a quarterly basis. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the GVA deflator is not based on a fixed basket of goods and services; rather the basket for the GVA deflator is allowed to change from year to year as per people's consumption and investment patterns.

It may be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes. In order to know more about the concept of GVA, please click here.
 
Quarter-on-quarter growth in sectoral GVA deflators

After facing negative growth rates in second (Q2= -0.76 percent) and third (Q3= -0.61 percent) quarters of 2018-19, the Agri GVA deflator is expected to grow by 1.62 percent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the current financial year. The quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth rates in Industrial GVA deflator and Services GVA deflator exceeded the q-o-q growth rate in Agri GVA deflator for both 2017-18 and 2018-19. Please check table-2.

Table 2: Quarter-on-Quarter Growth in Sectoral GVA deflator, in percent (calculated by Inclusive Media for Change)

Table 2 Quarter-on-Quarter Growth in Sectoral GVA deflator in percent calculated
Note: Sectoral GVA deflator is calculated using the formula: GVA Price Deflator = (Nominal GVA ÷ real GVA, which is in constant prices) x 100

Sectoral/ overall GVA for Q4 has been calculated by using the formula: GVA(Q4) = GVA(Annual Estimates) – {GVA(Q1) + GVA(Q2) + GVA(Q3)}

Source: Press Note on Second Advance Estimates of National Income 2018-19 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third Quarter Q3 of 2018-19, released on 28th February, 2019, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access
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A financial report entitled Q3 GDP Data: A Whole Slew of Revisions, which was published by the State Bank of India in February, 2019, says that although the growth in Agri GVA deflator is expected to become positive in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018-19, the growth in real Agri GVA is destined to be negative for that quarter.

Table 3: Quarter-on-Quarter Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices, in percent (calculated by Inclusive Media for Change)

Table 3 Quarter-on-Quarter Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices, in percent calculated
Note: Sectoral/ overall GVA for Q4 has been calculated by using the formula: GVA(Q4) = GVA(Annual Estimates) – {GVA(Q1) + GVA(Q2) + GVA(Q3)}

Source: Press Note on Second Advance Estimates of National Income 2018-19 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third Quarter Q3 of 2018-19, released on 28th February, 2019, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access 
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Data analysis done by the Inclusive Media for Change team shows that the q-o-q growth rate in Agri GVA (at 2011-12 prices) has slowed down from 5.07 percent in first quarter to -0.08 percent in fourth quarter of the current financial year. From table-3 it could be seen that the q-o-q growth rates in Industrial GVA (at constant prices) and Services GVA (at constant prices) surpassed q-o-q growth rate in Agri GVA (at constant prices) for 2018-19.

Annual growth in real GVA

Table-4 indicates that the y-o-y growth rate in real Agri GVA was -0.22 percent in 2014-15 and 0.65 percent in 2015-16. Please note that during those two years, the country witnessed severe drought, which could have affected crop production. Although the y-o-y growth rate in real Agri GVA jumped to 6.27 percent in 2016-17, it slowed down to 4.98 percent in 2017-18 and further tapered off to 2.75 percent in 2018-19. It may be noted that the country saw demonetisation in the period from 8th November, 2016 to 31st December, 2016. In 2018-19, drought like conditions adversely affected agricultural production in various states.  

Table 4: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices, in percent (calculated by Inclusive Media for Change)

Table 4 Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral GVA at 2011-12 prices, in percent calculated
Note: Same as in chart-1 (no sectoral GVA deflator has been calculated for this particular table)

Source: Same as in chart-1
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Out of the 3 major sectors of the economy, the agrarian sector grew the slowest (in terms of real Agri GVA) in the period from 2012-13 to 2018-19 (except in 2013-14). In 2013-14, the y-o-y growth rate in Agri GVA at constant prices (viz. 5.57 percent) was greater than the y-o-y growth rate in Industrial GVA at constant prices (viz. 3.79 percent). Please check table-4.  

 
References

Press Note on Second Advance Estimates of National Income 2018-19 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third Quarter Q3 of 2018-19, released on 28th February, 2019, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access

Press Note on First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for 2017-18, released on 31st January 2019, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access

Press Note on National Accounts Statistics Back series 2004-05 to 2011-12 (Base 2011-12), released on 28th November 2018, Central Statistics Office, MoSPI, please click here to access
 
Q3 GDP Data: A Whole Slew of Revisions, Economic Research Department (ERD), State Bank of India Corporate Centre, 28 February, 2019, Issue No. 93, please click here to access

Deflation in WPI of 8 kharif crops observed during 2016-17 to 2018-19, while their MSPs grew at a positive rate, News alert by Inclusive Media for Change dated 31 December, 2018, please click here to access 

Between 2013-14 & 2016-17, rabi foodgrain output likely to drop by 1 million tonne, News alert by Inclusive Media for Change dated 24 May, 2017, please click here to access 

Farm income growth slumps to a 14-year-low in Oct-December 2018 -Harish Damodaran, The Indian Express, 3 March, 2019, please click here to access 
 
Why deflator is best indicator of price rise -Harish Damodaran, The Indian Express, 4 September, 2015, please click here to access   
 
 
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Himanshu Joshi



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