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Farm income growth slumps to a 14-year-low in Oct-December 2018 -Harish Damodaran

ut what should worry the NDA government more than the low increase in “real” terms (i.e. at constant prices) is the growth in “nominal” terms (at current prices unadjusted for Inflation). Advertising The latter number, at 2.04 per cent, is the lowest for any quarter as per the Central Statistics Office’s new 2011-12 base year series and also the worst since the minus 1.1 per cent rate recorded way back in October-Dece

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Food prices may be subdued, but only for a while -Surabhi

n whether food prices have now moved to being structurally low, analysts believe that this is only a transient phenomenon and food prices, on a sequential basis, have already begun to rise. Retail Inflation may be at an 18-month low but prices, especially of food items, are likely to see a pick-up over the next few months with average Inflation expected to be at about four per cent in 2019-20. Despite

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No shortcuts to income guarantee -Harsh Mander

nd to be taken by women. So food transfers are far more likely to end up as food in the stomach of a child, than cash transfers, decisions about which tend to be taken by men. Cash transfers also are Inflationary in ways that food transfers are not. It is not that India cannot afford an income-support programme. Just that the pathway to this cannot be by cutting back on meagre existing subsidies to the poor. Subsidies to the middle-classes are thri

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The employment test -Pulapre Balakrishnan

eater part of this government’s tenure, has claimed that it has coincided with a degree of macroeconomic stability that has not been surpassed. Perhaps he had in mind the combination of falling Inflation and declining Budget deficits since 2014. However, while this has indeed transpired, it is important to note that these trends had commenced even before. Moreover, after repeatedly expressing a commitment to fiscal consolidation, the government

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RB Barman, former Chairperson of National Statistical Commission, interviewed by TK Rajalakshmi (

statistical authority free from political interference having power to set priorities with respect to core statistics is needed to ensure quality standards of statistical process”. Data on GDP, Inflation, employment, trade, etc., are part of core statistics. We tried to work within the ambit of our responsibility as spelt out in the gazette notification of 2006 setting up the NSC. The public can draw their inference about the effectiveness of th

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Crumbs for farmers -R Ramakumar

ose, allowing farmers to survive a period of rising costs of production. After 2011, however, global prices began to fall and the domestic policy atmosphere turned hostile to agriculture. The goal of Inflation targeting became the cherished goal of monetary policy. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-2 government refused to raise MSPs at the same rate as earlier, fearing that higher MSPs would lead to higher Inf

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The PM-KISAN challenge -Aparna Roy

000 for a farm family over five seasons, among other benefits. Moreover, given the volatile market and price fluctuations in different regions, it is important to index the cash transfers to local Inflation. The failure of an ambitious plan of Direct Benefit Transfer in kerosene in Rajasthan is a case in point, where the cash transferred to families has been insufficient to purchase kerosene, as the market price increased substantially. Please c

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RBI raises limit for collateral-free agri loans to Rs.1.6 lakh from Rs.1 lakh

ued shortly. “Presently the banks are mandated to extend collateral-free agriculture loans up to Rs. 1 lakh. This limit of Rs. 1 lakh was fixed in 2010. “Keeping in view the overall Inflation and rise in agriculture input costs since then, it has been decided to raise the limit for collateral-free agriculture loans from ?1 lakh to ?1.6 lakh,” said the central bank in its Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies, which

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How to make Direct Benefit Transfers work for the people -Karthik Muralidharan, Paul Niehaus and Sandip Sukhtankar

choice. But DBT also poses considerable risks: poor implementation may make beneficiaries worse off; the value of transfers may be inadequate (especially if they are not indexed to market prices and Inflation); and access to banks/ATMs and markets may vary across locations. Recipients may also use cash for non-food items, which might be their preference but would reduce the impact on policy goals for food security and nutrition. Please click here

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Square pegs, round holes -Amartya Lahiri

projected the 2018-19 nominal GDP to be Rs 188.4 lakh crore, a nominal growth rate of 12.3 per cent. Since the CSO was forecasting 7.2 per cent real GDP growth in 2018-19, this implied a GDP deflator Inflation rate of 5.1 per cent for the year. The problem, though, is that all the Inflation numbers that have come out this year which indicate that the 2018-19 CPI Inflati

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