GDP growth is being driven by larger firms. Smaller ones continue to suffer, need policy attention -Saugata Bhattacharya

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published Published on Feb 25, 2021   modified Modified on Feb 25, 2021

-The Indian Express

Policy coordination between the Centre and states will be crucial for implementing this ambitious reform agenda.

The National Statistical Office will release the second advance GDP estimates for 2020-21 at the end of February. The first advance estimate had, in early January, forecasted a contraction of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21. This was due largely to an expected, sharp contraction in both industry and services. The second advance estimates are likely to project a lower growth contraction, between 6-7 per cent — our own forecast been upgraded to 6.6 per cent.

These advance estimates are projections based on extrapolations from limited available data — initially available till October and November, and thereafter till December or January of the current financial year. A large part of the extrapolation exercise involves the financial results of corporates, which are declared quarterly (a substantial set of large and mid-sized listed companies will have declared their results at the time of writing this). Broadly, a proxy for nominal gross value-added (GVA) by the industry and services segments (and hence growth) can be derived from the sum of operating profits and employee costs for companies that operate in the respective segments.

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The Indian Express, 25 February, 2021,

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