The Hindu Explains: What is technical recession, and what does it mean for the Indian economy? -Suresh Seshadri
* What has the RBI cautioned about GDP decline amid the pandemic, and what lies ahead?
The story so far: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest monthly bulletin features an article by an official at its Monetary Policy Department titled ‘An Economic Activity Index for India’, where the author has, in a ‘nowcast’ (a forecast that estimates the outcome of a near-term event), projected that India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) contracted by 8.6% in the July-September quarter of the financial year ending in March 2021. Thus, “India has entered a technical recession in the first half of 2020-21 for the first time in its history with Q2:2020-21 likely to record the second successive quarter of GDP contraction,” wrote the article’s author Pankaj Kumar. GDP had shrunk by 23.9% in the first quarter, according to the National Statistical Office’s estimate in August.
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The Hindu, 15 November, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/the-hindu-explains-what-is-technical-recession-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-indian-economy/article33100607.ece